Weekly Commentary – 6/5/09: Why do I have any cash in my portfolio, when the stock market is going up?

Is it because my investment advisor is completely nuts and has his head in the sand?  Maybe, but I believe the stock market continues to move based upon emotions and not fundamentals in the short-term.  The first good news was that things are getting less worse and now it is the belief that the recession may be coming to an end.  Along these lines, I recently saw some analysts on CNBC talking in regards to corporate profits.  I believe they stated that 2/3′s of S&P 500 companies had reported earnings in excess of or losses less than expected.  However, for the vast majority of these companies it was due to cutting costs and not from improving sales.

 Cost cutting can only go so far and at some point sales have to increase for companies to increase their profitability and see their share prices appreciate over the long run.  I fully expect this to be the case in the years ahead.  In the short-term, I believe the market may be setting itself up for a pullback.  Instead of me boring you with my rambling opinions, please view the attached Yahoo video.  The investment professional’s opinion for the most part mirrors mine.  In saying this, I would say I am more optimistic over the long-term (i.e., the next 10 years) than she is.  However, I believe you may find her perspective very insightful.  This is a six minute video that I highly recommend you view, and reinforces why many of you will see new equity mutual fund purchases taking place over the next several months versus committing all the money at one time.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/259541/%22Over-Goosed%22-Market-Grapples-with%20-Good-News-Bad-News-Jobs-Report?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,DIA,QQQQ,XSP,XRE

 Recent economic news

 The government reported that unemployment is now at approximately 9.40%, but employers cut 345,000 jobs in May, significantly less than the half-million economists predicted.  Overseas though it is a different story; Germany’s central bank expects the country’s economy to shrink 6.20% this year and actually remain stagnate in 2010.  This is a surprisingly pessimistic outlook for the world’s number one exporting country.

 TD Ameritrade post card notice

 Many of you will be or have already received a postcard from TD Ameritrade regarding a class action settlement.  In 2007, TD Ameritrade had a suspected breach in security where some of their client’s information may have been compromised.  None of our clients were affected and you should disregard this notice.  If you have any questions, feel free to contact Sally Gradinjan, our Client Relations Manager.

 Events

 Debra Kunz will have a Strategic Life Planning workshop on June 17th.  If you feel like you’re spinning your wheels and need some focus, call her for a session or more information.  For more details on this or other upcoming events, please visit our web site at http://iia-kc.com/events/

 Quotes

 “Spend some, save some, share some.  That is how to be happy with the money you earn.”

                                     Donald Wilczynski, Atlanta Georgia

 “If you look after the people, if you work hard for their welfare, treat them the way you want to be treated yourself, they’ll follow you to the ends of the earth.”

                                     Angus Houston, Air Chief Marshal of the Australian Defence Force

 “Our most important thoughts are those which contradict our emotions.”

                                     Paul Valery poet and philosopher

 

Tony Moeller, President

Integrity Investment Advisors, LLC

12721 Metcalf Ave., #202

Overland Park, KS  66213

tmoeller@iia-kc.com

913-897-2074

 

The information listed in this commentary is a compilation of various publicly available sources and is for informational purposes only.  It is not a recommendation or solicitation of any particular investment or strategy. A risk of loss is involved with investments in the stock and bond markets.

 If you enjoy the commentary and believe others may benefit or find it of interest, please feel free to forward it on.  Also, interested individuals can contact us, and we will be happy to add them to our mailing list.

 

 

 

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