Market Commentary – 1/20/12: Off to a good start

Some positive underpinnings that may be helping the stock market’s uptrend thus far this year:

  • The U.S. Labor Department announced this week that food and energy costs pushed down U.S. wholesale prices (the producer-price index, which measures what manufacturers and wholesalers pay for finished goods) in December, providing some relief for businesses hit by higher costs of other goods. In addition, there was a 0.4% rise in industrial production in December reflecting strength in manufacturing.
  • Another positive is an article in today’s Wall Street Journal that spending on home maintenance by homeowners and landlords is forecasted to have increased in 2011 and will go up again in 2012. That would market the first year since 2006 that this has occurred.
  • Right or wrong, the Federal Reserve appears to be ready to put additional steps in place to increase monetary easing in the upcoming months depending on several economic scenarios. As controversial as these steps have been, the stock market has reacted positively each time.
  • Locally, I attended a bank advisory board meeting last evening. In attendance were several business owners of firms of various sizes. It was nice to hear one professional with a manufacturing firm state that his company is starting to see a pick up in orders. His customers are replenishing their inventory or are more confident about sales in the coming months.

In this same meeting, a local attorney, well-versed in mergers and acquisitions, stated that he has seen an increase in activity. And the bankers themselves had some positive comments regarding loan demand. Read more

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Market Commentary – 1/6/12: No tabloid predictions here

No tabloid predictions here 

It’s the start of a new year and the best part of it has been the weather. It’s been in the 60s (degrees that is), which is extraordinarily balmy for the KC Metro area in January. 

Regarding the investment and economic climate, well that forecast is cloudier. It appears that optimism is trying to shine through in 2012. Unemployment is trending down and jobs are being created, even though both are lagging on a historical basis. 

On the other hand, this week, Alcoa, the world’s biggest aluminum company, announced that it is cutting its capacity by 12% due to economic slowdown and uncertainty around the globe. In addition, the Wall Street Journal reported that retail sales during the Christmas season were less robust than expected, and some analysts are forecasting less sluggish earnings in 2012 for companies in the S&P 500.  Read more

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