Weekly Commentary – 7/22/11: Are you being rational or stocking army rations?

The current debt ceiling debate is stealing the headlines and creating an opportunity for sensational commentary from almost every pundit under the sun.  I, as well as you, have read and probably heard a plethora of outcomes as to what might occur if and/or when this situation is resolved.  Unfortunately, I believe it has caused some stress and concern for investors, especially retirees.  As such, I am going to tell you what I think, not about the debate and what should be done, but what options you may want to consider.

If you seriously believe that the U.S. is going to default and it could be the end of our financial system as we know it, then I recommend army rations, ammunition and canned goods.  By taking these steps, you may be able to rise from the economic ashes and provide food, shelter and protection for your immediate family and maybe, just maybe a few of your closest relatives. 

Now as ridiculous as this may seem, it seems quite rational in response to some of the extremist comments I have read and heard.  On the other hand, you can try and tune out the talking heads and realize that, yes, it is important that U.S. and other political leaders get a handle on their governments’ finances.  That being said, every year there is some major headline grabbing event that takes place, expected or not, and we adjust to it and life goes on.  Honestly, no matter what occurs on, before, or after the August 2nd deadline, there will still be a line of cars snaking around McDonalds at lunch time, caffeine zombies dragging themselves to Starbucks for their morning cure, moms fighting with their kids over the candy display at the checkout counter at the grocery store, and Apple continuing its march toward world domination via its cadre of i-devices. 

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Weekly Commentary – 7/8/11: The markets continue to climb a wall of worry

Global stock markets have been reacting very positively in the near term, and quite honestly, have taken me by surprise.  Historically, markets have climbed “a wall of worry” and advanced in the face of bad news.  As such, the recent market run ups may be an indication that: 

  • There is wide spread belief that the bandage placed on the Greek financial mess will hold for awhile. 
  • The leaders in D.C. will find common ground on raising the debt ceiling.  However, austerity is coming to America; so get ready for some cuts. 
  • The labor markets are improving evidenced by today’s data from payrolls processor ADP showing U.S. private hiring increased by 157,000 in June.  This is well above the expected 68,000, bouncing back from a surprise slump the month before. 

Several economists, CEOs and politicians have advocated that one the best moves to fix the U.S. Government’s budget problem would be to simplify the tax system.  Get rid of the majority of the loopholes, while lowering overall tax rates for corporations.  This will create a much greater base of income to pull taxes from, resulting in higher tax revenues over time and possibly funds being repatriated back to the U.S. from overseas.  As Warren Buffett noted in a CNBC interview today, to really address the U.S. deficit problem requires three things: a lot of will, leadership and outrage.  I am in full agreement, but as to if and when this may occur I am not sure.  All I can say is that when it does, we will see some market volatility. 

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