Barton Biggs runs a multi-billion dollar hedge fund based in New York City, and prior to that he held the title of “chief global strategist” for Morgan Stanley and was with the firm for 30 years.  Earlier this month (July 2^nd to be exact), Mr. Biggs sold half his equity / stock holdings.  However, he recently changed his mind and is buying stock again and dramatically increasing his allocation.  He stated the following in a Bloomberg interview earlier this week, “I’ve definitely changed my mind to the degree of risk out there.  Economic data around the world in the last 10 days to two weeks has turned more positive.  It has exceeded forecasts almost without exception.  The odds of the world slumping into a significant slowdown has diminished…The environment is fairly decent right now and there are opportunities.”  Read more

Catepillar reported a huge increase in earnings and raised its forecast for the remainder of the year.  This is important because Caterpillar sells equipment to construction and mining companies globally.  In addition, it was noted that orders for new equipment exceeded shipments so the company will need to increase production (i.e. hire new workers).  This earnings announcement, combined with positive earnings reports from 3M and Honeywell, whom also sell to industrial companies, is good news. 

Additional good news came from UPS noting higher earnings due, in part, to increased package shipments.  Also, American Express and Capital One both noted increased spending and fewer bad loans from their credit card customers. Read more

Good news is; BP has temporarily capped the oil leak in the gulf, the new iPhone is out, and Intel along with other tech companies is reporting increasingly improving results.  Unfortunately, there is an air of pessimism over the market.  Business leaders (from small mom and pop operations to large multi-national corporations) are not completely embracing the recovery.  Read more

This is an incredibly true statement, even though it is a misquotation of the original text written by George Santayana, who, in his Reason in Common Sense, The Life of Reason, Vol.1, wrote “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” 

In the financial debacle of late 2008 through spring of 2009, we avoided a depression similar to what occurred in 1932 (i.e., Great Depression).  However, now that we are out of the woods “economically speaking,” are we on track to see an economic relapse like 1938? Read more

Pick whatever economic villain you wish – stubbornly high unemployment, weak housing market, troubles in Europe, deficits, the oil spill, etc.  Fear has returned to the stock market (globally), and the temporary shift to bonds has resulted in lower yields.  As such, mortgage rates have hit 50-year lows, which may account for why I have heard of individuals refinancing their mortgages at unheard of rates (see headline).   Read more