This week the Conference Board (i.e., a not-for-profit, nonpartisan organization of business leaders representing a variety of major industries) announced that consumer confidence was up 35% from April, and it was the fourth-largest jump in the index’s 32-year history. The index is now in positive territory and at its highest level in eight months. I believe many factors play a part in this from the recent stock market rally, the large banks passing the government “stress test,” and economists predicting the end of the recession later this year just to name a few. History has shown that confidence usually translates into spending, which is what fuels the vast, vast majority of the U.S. economy. Thus more spending > more business sales > more business income > higher stock prices > more confidence > more spending.
This traditional equation has worked over the years; however, consumer and government debt are at record levels. Thus, the money we would normally have to spend is actually going toward our outstanding debts. As such, this cycle may not be as quick or strong as past economic recoveries. Supporting this assumption is the announcement this week from Manufacturers Alliance that U.S. manufacturing output is expected to decline 12% this year, which is much sharper than 8% it predicted just three months ago, and grow a modest 2% in 2010. If consumers are buying less, then companies will respond by producing less.
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It is spring, and it has been a very wet one in Overland Park. However, the nice weather has put most everyone I know in a much better mood. The same can be said for investors and consumers, both seem to be much more optimistic about the stock market and economy. Especially when the Conference Board (i.e., a not-for-profit, nonpartisan organization of business leaders representing a variety of major industries) noted this week that signs of an economic recovery may be near. This is based upon its index of leading economic indicators rising 1% in April after seven straight monthly declines. Also, it was the largest gain in nearly four years.
However, there are still some underlying issues at play that temper my enthusiasm for the coming months. The following are just a few examples:
•· Three of the United State’s biggest trading partners – Mexico, Japan and Germany each saw their economies contract substantially in the first quarter of this year.
•· Britain’s government debt outlook was lowered from stable to negative by Standard & Poor’s. Britain currently enjoys an AAA credit rating, same as the U.S. government, which is reserved for the least risky bond issuers. However, S&P is concerned that Britain will not be able to maintain its AAA credit rating in the years ahead.
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Debra Kunz is facilitating this program for the Central Exchange. To Register, go to www.centralexchange.org.
With the abrupt decline in the stock market and panic in the economy, and the resulting uncertainty in our lives, it’s no wonder we feel anxious. But why are we pre-disposed to define ourselves based on our bank accounts, and our cars, and homes, and our net worth?
It seems counterproductive to define our own self worth based on something that should be used as a tool to provide for our life, and not define our life.
With all of this turmoil, is there anything we can control? YES!!!
Debra Kunz shares ways to create your life instead of just react to it. Learn to shift your perspective from living by default to defining what you want; and from fearing the economy to understanding what you can control.
About the Facilitator
Debra Kunz, MBA, CSLP is a speaker, author and coach on life and business programs such as strategic life planning, team dynamics and work environment. She teaches individuals, groups and businesses to create their life and business instead of react to it.
Contact her for information about presenting this program, and others, for your organization. dkunz@iia-kc.com or 913-897-2074.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
8:30am – 4:30pm
Location: Corporate Woods, Building 12, 10975 Benson Dr, Ste 390, Overland Park, KS
You may arrive at the workshop running like a hamster in a wheel and feeling like your life is out of control. You leave with a sense of direction, purpose and focus with your single-page blueprint of the life you have designed. 8 hour class with a workbook. Essential first step to create your life instead of react to it.
Regular price, $325 includes lunch, all workshop materials, and a personal session with Debra.
Register now to receive a $75 savings
Call Debra Kunz at 913-897-2074 or email dkunz@iia-kc.com to register.
(Participation is limited, Pre-registration is required.)
Ask about personal coaching to jump start your plan, or begin with personal sessions if you prefer.
This session utilizes Strategic Life Planning from The Mindset Series (R) product line. This series is based on years of experience in understanding high performance, and is designed to help individuals and businesses maximize their potential.
Program facilitated by Debra Kunz, MBA, CSLP.
About the Facilitator, Debra Kunz, MBA, CSLP
Learn more about Strategic Life Planning
We would like to honor and thank our clients and their guests with a relaxing time of fun, food and drinks!
Wednesday, June 24
4:00pm – 7:30pm
Deer Creek Apt. Homes Club House
129th & Metcalf Ave.
Overland Park, KS 66213 US
Please call us with any questions. We look forward to seeing you there!
Debra Kunz is facilitating this program for the Association of Career Professionals as a private session.
With the abrupt decline in the stock market and panic in the economy, and the resulting uncertainty in our lives, it’s no wonder we feel anxious. But why are we pre-disposed to define ourselves based on our bank accounts, and our cars, and homes, and our net worth?
It seems counterproductive to define our own self worth based on something that should be used as a tool to provide for our life, and not define our life.
With all of this turmoil, is there anything we can control? YES!!!
Debra Kunz shares ways to create your life instead of just react to it. Learn to shift your perspective from living by default to defining what you want; and from fearing the economy to understanding what you can control.
About the Facilitator
Debra is a Certified Strategic Life Planner who works with individuals and businesses to help them discover what they want, create a plan to stay focused, guide them through implementation, and navigate the unexpected.
Contact her for information about presenting this program, and others, for your organization. dkunz@iia-kc.com or 913-897-2074.
The London Associated Press noted today that the 16 countries that make up the European Union or euro zone saw their economies shrink by 2.50% in the first quarter. In fact, Germany, the world largest exporter, saw its economy shrink by 3.80%. It’s the country’s biggest economic contraction since 1970 when West Germany began compiling records.
The governments comprising the euro zone are optimistic that the large interest rate cuts, stimulus spending and aid given to struggling banks will result in the first quarter of 2009, marking the low point of the recession.
Economies, the stock market, and standards of living have historically all grown / increased over time. Expansion is their natural trend. However, they experience periods or cycles of contraction (i.e., recessions), within this long-term trend of expansion. Currently, all of the previous mentioned (i.e., global economies, stock markets and standards of living) are experiencing contraction. However, if we were to view their historical pattern over the last 20, 50 or even 75 years, we would see periods of contraction within their overall expansions. I bring this up because we have all seen and benefitted from the expansion periods, and we have and continue to feel the ill effects of a severe contraction / recession.
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The U.S. Labor Department reported today that the pace of layoffs slowed in April when employers cut 539,000 jobs, the fewest in six months. The job cuts weren’t as deep as expected, but the new report underscored the toll the longest recession since World War II has taken on America’s workers and companies. However, the slowdown in layoffs may bolster expectations that the worst of the downturn’s hefty job losses are past.
“There are glimmers of hope. We are moving in the right direction in terms of layoffs. They are measurably less bad than what we’ve been through,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. That being said, companies will remain wary of hiring, making it harder for unemployed workers to find new jobs.
The U.S. may see unemployment rebound much quicker than in Europe. In a May 7th Wall Street Journal article, it was noted that European companies will most probably lag when it comes to hiring new workers. For example Germany and France have wage-tax burdens of 52.20% and 49.20% of their respective total labor costs. However, this current burden is estimated to be at 30.0% for U.S. companies. Economists expect the U.S. to stabilize much faster than Europe, and the International Monetary Fund predicts that overall European economies will continue shrinking next year, whereas the U.S. should bottom out by then.
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We have clients that either did not know their credit history or did not know that they were eligible to receive one free credit report a year. By reviewing your credit report regularly, you are able to:
- Review credit account histories to determine, inaccurate or incorrect information.
- Detect unauthorized activity or fraud
- View activity from all three credit reporting bureaus
- See who’s pulled your credit
- See your public information, such as addresses, etc
- Dispute inaccurate information
- For a fee, you can also pay to see your credit score
If you would like help in getting your free credit report, please call (913) 897-2074 and we will walk you through the process.
In the past, several clients have come to us asking for help with their new car purchase. If you would like us to help price your next new car, just let us know. We just need to know what make, model and options you want? Here are some of the steps we use to put your car out to bid.
- Research dealer invoice prices through Edmunds.com
- Locate any dealer incentives, rebates and special financing options
- Send the car out to bid to multiple dealers for anonymous pricing
- Arrange Trade-ins if applicable
- Negotiate a final price
- You pick up your new car, no haggling, no surprises.
To learn more about this service, complete our inquiry form or contact us at (913) 897-2074 or info@iia-kc.com.
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